The Inflation And Stock Returns In Nigeria - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 23 Words: 6758 Downloads: 10 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Analytical essay Did you like this example? This study empirically examines the relationship between inflation and stock returns in Nigeria during 1997-2006. The study focuses on different econometric models to investigation this relationship using monthly data of the All Share Price Index from the Nigerian Stock Exchange and Nigerian Consumers Index. The simple OLS regression result suggests that the residuals are stationary, which implies that stock returns and inflation are co integrated. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "The Inflation And Stock Returns In Nigeria" essay for you Create order Therefore we can conclude that there is a long run relationship between stock returns (LOGASI) and inflation (LOGCPI).The Engel co-integration results reveals that there is long run relationship between inflation and stock returns .the study further goes on to the determine the causal long run relationship using the Error Correction Model (ECM). This article offers evidence of a positive relationship between stock market returns and inflation. This result confirms that stock returns act as a hedge against inflation. CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background to the Study The advent of oil boom in Nigeria in the early 1970s, has led to the instability of stock prices. This has been attributed to many factors such as: budget deficit monetization, inflow of foreign capital from crude oil sales and financial markets creation of excess private domestic credit. Since early 1970s, inflation rates in Nigeria has been highly unstable; the high inflationary change was in excess of 30 percent. This is evident in the high correlation of money supply growth and high inflation due to the fact that real economic growth is less in real term to money growth. This can be observed from the growth in money supply and some structural factors such as; supply shocks arising from famine, unfavorable terms of trade and devaluation of currency. Furthermore, Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) introduced by the government in the late 1980s also accounted for the increase in price level in the economy. Consequently, inflation in Nigeria has overtime responded to structural changes. These changes can be characterized into four periods based on the pattern and events that occur at that period. The first period of inflationary increase in Nigeria was noticed from 1974 to 1976; inflation increased by 30 percent. This inflationary pressure was as a result of the following: High cost of agricultural produce caused by drought in the Northern part of Nigeria, Excessive oil revenue monetization, increase in wage rate based on the recommendation of the Udoji commission of 1974, Folawewo (2005), and political instability The second period was from 1983 to 1985 when inflation rate reached 40 percent. This period noticed very little economic growth, The Nigerian government was under intense pressure from debtor groups to accept International Monetary Fund conditionalitys of devaluation of domestic currency because government debt has increased above 70 percent while excess money growth was around 41and 43 percent. This period also witnessed poor ex ternal trade performance.CBN (, 2006) The third period was from 1987 to 1989 when inflation rate hovered around 35 percent. During this period, the economy experienced high inflationary pressure brought about by fiscal expansion noticed in the 1988 budget, the debt for equity swaps conversion method adopted by the Government of Nigeria and the drastic contraction in monetary policy, all accounted for this change that span through to the early 1990s. Finally, the fourth period occurred between 1993 and 2000, as a result of fiscal deficit expansion which caused a 70 percent increase in money supply with a knock-on effect on domestic credit of the private sector of the economy.CBN, (2006) Overall, inflationary pressure can be largely attributed to structural factors such as; real income reduction caused by fluctuation in oil revenue, high nominal wages and debt obligation in form of expansionary fiscal deficit. These invariably mean that over the years, fluctuation in commodit y price is a normal feature of the Nigerian economy. One major commodity considered in this study is the capital market stock, i.e. the Stock market. Stocks listed in Nigeria are traded on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is the apex regulatory body which oversees the activities and affairs of the major players on the floor of the Stock Exchange. The Nigeria Stock Exchange was established in September 15, 1960 but commenced business on June 5, 1961 with 19 securities listed and traded on the Lagos Stock Exchange. Based on the recommendation of the Government Financial System Review Committee in 1976, the Lagos Stock Exchange was renamed and made part of the Nigerian Stock Exchange in December 5, 1977. The Nigerian Stock Exchange has nine branches established in major commercial cities in Nigeria. The main exchange of stocks of large enterprises are traded in the Nigerian Stock Exchange while small and medium scal e enterprises are listed and traded in the Second tier Securities Market (SSM). From 1963 to 1990, the Nigerian stock exchange witnessed an overwhelming increase in government stock which exceeded the equities of industrial companies; however this trend changed from 1991. The value of equities of industrial companies increased to billions of Naira, while government stock traded on the Nigerian Stock Exchange was worth millions of Naira this decrease continues till date, a development to the deregulation of the economy. Despite the increase in market capitalization noticed in the economy at that period, the ratio of this amount to the Gross Domestic Product and Gross Fixed Capital Formation was still low. This increase was between 4.8% and 25.4% for gross domestic product while the ratio for gross fixed capital formation is between 28% and 55% from 1963 to 1990 (CBN, 2006). The ratio of market capitalization in the gross domestic product and gross fixed capital formation increased geometrically from 1990 to 1995. Although there was decrease in the share of market capitalization in gross domestic product and gross fixed capital formation, the return on investment did not follow the same pattern. This decrease noticed at that period was caused by a banking crisis in which a total of 26 banks were liquidated in 1998. However, with the recapitalization of the banking sector in 2005, the industry remains the most active participant in Nigerian stock market up till date. The trend in Nigeria Stock Exchange causes the price and return on stocks to be highly volatile. 1.2 Problem Statement Price stability is essential in determining whether an economy is stable or not. Inflation which is the constant increase in price creates uncertainty in the economy; uncertainty makes both domestic and foreign investors unwilling to invest. In Nigeria inflation has led to increase in nominal interest rates which affect the value of interest payment of banks and financial institutions. Furthermore, determination of the problem caused by inflation depends upon the degree in which inflation is anticipated correctly or not. If inflation is anticipated correctly and the monetary authority is seen to be credible, the fluctuation in price would be managed effectively but if inflation is unanticipated, some economic agents will gain while others will lose. Unanticipated inflation impact negatively on saving ability of the citizens and as a result, low saving leads to a fall in the demand for stocks and equities as financial wealth. This decrease in demand causes the price of equities to f all thereby reducing returns on equities and stocks. Furthermore, the prices of stock determine how effective and efficient the stock market allocates shares and equities based on preference and availability of market information. Increase or decrease in price of stock create uncertainty for the investors and in turn affect the demand and supply of stocks. Therefore, general increase in price level may affect peoples potential investors investment decision which has negative impact on the total returns on stocks in the economy at large. This situation is prevalent in the Nigerian economy; therefore there is the need to examine the effect of inflation on stock returns and its implication on investment. The Fishers hypothesis (Fishers effect) suggests that stocks or equities hedge or evade inflation, empirical investigation suggest that inflation and stock returns are negatively related. This study will be looking at relationship between inflation and stocks in Nigeria. The stud y of this relationship is essential in improving and in the understanding of stock markets, thus providing standards for decision-making about asset allocation.This study contributes to the existing literature by providing evidence for whether inflation affects stock returns both in the long run and in the short run. 1.3 Justification for the Study Despite the large number of empirical studies on the relationship between inflation and stock returns, there is no general consensus on the causal direction of this relationship. Empirical works as; Nelson (1976), Shwarts (1977), Fama (1981), Geske and Roll (1983), Gultekin (1983), Marshall (1992), Bakshi Chen, (1996), Zhao (1999), Chatrath et al (1997), Spyrou (2001), Omran and Pointon (2001), Crosby (2001), Gallagher and Taylor (2002) and Floros (2002), suggested a negative relationship between inflation and stocks while Boudoukh and Richardson (1993), Graham (1996) and Choudlery (2001) in different studies take the opposing view, i.e. that there exists positive relationship between inflation and stock returns. However, most of these studies were carried out in industrial nations and some selected developing countries most especially Latin American countries. Specific studies on the exact relationship between inflation and stock returns in Nigeria have not been explored rigor ously. Furthermore, considering the negative impact of inflation on prices of commodities in Nigeria coupled with the volatility of stock returns, this study seek to provide a rigorous analysis of the dynamics of inflation and its implication on stock returns in Nigeria using an Error Correction Model to create a parsimonious and encompassing model that would show both short-run and long-run relationship between inflation and stock returns in Nigeria. 1.4 Plan of Study Following the introductory remarks in chapter one, chapter two will review the existing literature on this subject. While chapter three will focus on the theoretical framework, methodology, model specification, estimation technique and sources of data. The summary of result of the empirical analysis is presented in chapter four while the study will be rounded up in chapter five with summary of findings, policy implication and conclusion. CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction Section 2.2 of this chapter discusses the underpinning theories of inflation and stock returns. Section 2.3 examines the empirical literature review on inflation and stock returns this is to help identify the link between inflation and stock returns. Finally section 2.4 examines the methodological literature on inflation and stock returns. 2.2 Theoretical Literature Review on Inflation and Stock Returns The Fisher hypothesis suggests that there is a positive relationship between interest rates and inflation. (Berument Jelassi, 2002) Fisher (1930) argues that nominal interest rate is entirely a sign of the existing information in relation to the likely future values of the rate of inflation. This hypothesis has come to be known as à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"the Fisher effect in the economic literature; it states that expected nominal rates of interest on financial assets should move one-to-one with expected inflation. Choudhry (2001) Fisher hypothesis, in its strict sense, predicts a positive homogeneous relationship of degree one between stock return and inflation. (Luintel Paudyal, 2008) The proxy-hypothesis was introduced by Fama (1981) to explain the predominance of negative stock return-inflation trend. The main principle on which Famas version of the proxy-effect hypothesis is based on is the observed negative relationship between inflation and stock returns which app ears to be spurious since this relationship is a result of the positive relationship that exist between stock returns and expected economic activity and an inverse relationship between expected economic activity and inflation. Inflation simply serves as a proxy for expected economic activity in a statistical relationship between stock returns and inflation. (Lee U. , Monday, June 22 1998) The proxy hypothesis states that the negative relationship between inflation and stock returns is spurious and really only proxies for the positive relationship between stock returns and real variables. Previous testes of the proxy hypothesis have used actual values instead of forecasted values for the real activity variable. (McCarthy, Najand, Seifert, 1990) did not find a support for the proxy hypothesis using only forecasted variables. Gonedes (1981) the failure to use indexation means that real income tax rates will vary directly with rates of inflation. This substantive effect of mere b ookkeeping methods is frequently predicted even though it is known to have some adverse implications. This is the tax effects of inflation hypothesis. 2.3 Empirical Literature Review on Inflation and Stock Returns The empirical literature on the impact of inflation on stock returns records major contribution by different scholars over the years. But the empirical evidence provided by most of these studies has been mixed, and a consensus has not yet emerged. While studies like Pierrel and Kwok (1992), Geske and Roll (1983), Floros (2002), Ugur (2005), Yeh and Chi (2009), Pesaran et al (2001), Den Haan (2000), Crosby (2001), Syros (2001), Roohi and Khalid (2002) among others have found a negative relationship between inflation and stock returns; Boudoukh and Richardson (1993), Graham (1996), Choudhry (2001), Patra and Posshakwale (2006) and Lee et al (2000) among others reported positive relationship between these variables. Concerning the review of the approaches of modeling the effect of inflation on stock returns, Pierrel and Kwoks (1992) estimates and tests the alternative versions of hypothesis that explain the relationship between these two variables. The study employs distributed lag s in order to empirically arrive at a dynamic structure of inflation. Pierrel and Kwoks concluded that this dynamic structure conform to Fama (1981), Benderly and Zwick (1985), and Geske et al (1983) hypothesis that suggest a negative relationship between inflation and return on stocks. Yeh and Chi (2009) tested the validity of the various Hypotheses that explain this relationship. The empirical result of this study on 12 OECD countries shows that these countries exhibit a short-run negatively significant co-movement between stock returns and inflation. Moreover, countries like Australia, France, Ireland and Netherland do not display a long-run relationship between the two variables in equilibrium. This result is consistent with the hypotheses of Fama (1981), Modigliani et al (1979) and Feldstein (1980) which suggested that an increase in inflation reduces real returns on stock. This result is also in line with Caporale and Jung (1997) and Rapach (2002). They argue respectively t hat there exist a negative significant effect of inflation on real stock returns after controlling for output shock and that inflationary trends do not erode returns on stocks. The Fishers Hypothesis was tested by Spyros (2002). His results reflect a contrary view that returns on stocks hedges inflation. This study shows that there is negative but not statistically significant relationship between inflation and stock returns in Greece from 1990 to 2000. In this same vein, Floros (2002) carried the same study on Greece economy and concluded that inflation and stocks in Greece should be treated as independent variables because the result of the various test conducted show that there is no relationship between inflation and stock returns in Greece. Crosby (2001) investigates the relationship between inflation and stock returns in Australia from 1875 to 1996 and found out that the Australian economy does not experience permanent changes in inflation or stock returns. The result shows that there exist short-run negative relationships between these two variables that depend on the period of time that is considered. On the contrary, Lee et al (2000) examine the impact of German hyperinflation in the 1920s on stock returns. This result of this study show that the hyperinflation in Germany in early 1920s cointegrates with stock returns. The fundamental relationship between stocks returns and both realized and expected inflation is highly positive. They concluded that common stocks appear to be a hedge against inflation during this period. Choudhry (2001) in his study on the impact of inflation on stock returns in some selected Latin and Central American countries (Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Venezuela) from 1981-1996, reveal that there is one- to-one relationship between the current rate of nominal return and inflation for Argentina and Chile. Their result also reveals that the lag values of inflation affect stock returns and this result infer that stocks act as a hedge against inflation. Patra and poshakwale (2006) conducted a study on the impact of economic variables on market returns in Greece from 1990 to 1999. Empirical results show that some macroeconomic variable like money supply, inflation, volume of trade and exchange have both short-run and long-run relationship with stock price in equilibrium in Greece while there was no short-run or long run relationship noticed between exchange rate and stock prices. Ugur (2005) in a study on the effect of inflation on return on stocks in turkey from 1986 to 2000 reveal that expected inflation and real returns are not correlated. The results suggest there is a negative relationship between inflation and stock returns which may be caused by the negative impact of unexpected inflation on stock returns. This results did not contradict Fisherian hypothesis because of the non correlation of inflation and real returns but the results is in line with the proxy hypothesis since a negative signi ficant relationship exist between the two variables. Aperigis and Eleftheriou (2002) results also concurred that there is negative link between inflation and stock returns in Greece than in interest rate and stock returns. Similar study like Adrangi et al (1999) and sellin (2001) also support the proxy hypothesis. Khil and Lee (2000) in their study on ten pacific-rim countries and the US that all the countries except Malaysia reveal negative relationship between inflation and stock returns. The tax-effects Hypothesis which asserts that there is negative relationship between inflation and stock returns was tested by Geske and Roll (1983). Empirical result from the reveal that random negative or positive real shock affects stock returns which in turn, signal higher or lower unemployment and lower or higher corporate earnings. This has effect on the personal and corporate tax revenue leading to increase or decrease in the treasury through borrowing from the public. The economy paid for this debt by expanding or contracting money growth and this would lead to higher or lower inflation. They concluded that random shocks on stock returns are both fiscal and monetary in nature in the U.S.A. Roohi and Khalid (2002) considered the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectation Theory to investigate the effect of inflation on stock returns. Empirical results of the study suggest that the relationship between real stock returns, unexpected inflation and unexpected growth are negatively significant. They concluded that the control of real output growth makes the negative relationship between these two variables to disappear over time. 2.4 Methodological Literature Review on Inflation and Stocks Returns The empirical relation between inflation and stock returns has been investigated through various approaches since the 1970s. Spyros (2001), adopted Vector-Auto regressive (VAR) model and the cointegration test to confirm if there was any relationship between inflation and stock returns in Greece. Pierrel and Kwok (1992) investigated the relationship between stock returns and inflation in the United State between 1962-1992 using Vector- Autoregressive (VAREC) model, and Granger Causality, Crosby (2001), used Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and correlation analysis to examine the relationship between inflation and stock returns in Australia from 1875-1996. Floros (2002), investigated the relationship between stock returns and inflation in Greece from 1988-2002 by considering both the lag and lead periods of inflation and stock returns using Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Johansen Cointegration Test and Pairwise Granger Causality Test. In this same vein , Ugur (2005) used the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Standard Granger Causality to examine the relationship between inflation, stock returns and real activity in Turkey. Choudhry (2001), estimate the impact of inflation on stock returns in some selected Latin and Central American countries using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), unit root test and spectral regression model. Lee et al (2000); and Geske and Roll (1983), also used ARIMA, OLS and unit root test to investigate the effect of German hyperinflation and stock returns, and the impact of inflation on stocks returns in the USA respectively. Patra and Poshakwale (2006) on the other hand, used the Error Correction Model (ECM), Johansen Cointegration Test and Pairwise Granger Causality Test to show if economic variables such as money supply interest rate, exchange rate, volume of trade and stock prices have impact on stock returns. Yeh and Chi (2009) in their study on 12 OECD countries measures corr elation at different forecast horizon by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test, unit root test and confidence interval method to investigate the inflation illusion hypothesis that suggest that there is negative relationship between inflation and stock returns. Pesaran et al (2001) and Den Haan (2000) also employ the same technique and arrive at the same result. This study examines the relationship between inflation and stock returns in Nigeria. Furthermore a test is carried out to see if theres a cointegration and causality within these variables. Methods used in this study are explained in chapter three. This study fundamentally aims to analyses the above relationship for a period of 1st of January 1997-31st of December 2006 .monthly values of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and Nigerian Consumers Price Index (CPI). CPI was collected from the Central Bank of Nigerian Statistical bulletin (2006), while (ASI) All Share Index was collected from Nigerian Stock Exc hange data bank. The reviews of literature above reveal that there are basically four major hypotheses discussing the relationship between inflation and stock returns. These theories are Fisherian hypothesis, proxy hypothesis, tax-effect hypothesis and inflation illusion hypothesis. Considering the level of price stability in Nigeria over the period of our study, the study seeks to adopt Fisherian hypothesis which suggest that stock hedges inflation. This is based on the fact that literature suggests that the price of stock is a major determinant of stock returns which is affected positively by expected or unexpected inflation (consumer price index). CHAPTER THREE MODEL SPECIFICATION AND METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction This chapter covers the theoretical framework, specification of the models utilized in the study as well as the methodologies that will be adopted. Accordingly, the estimation procedures, and data requirements; types and sources of data are also discussed in this section. 3.2 Theoretical Framework The reviews of literature in chapter two reveal that there are basically four major hypotheses discussing the relationship between inflation and stock returns. These theories are; 1. Fisherian hypothesis 2. Proxy hypothesis, 3. Tax-effect hypothesis and; 4. Inflation illusion hypothesis. The Fisherian hypothesis is thus specified; Where is the real returns, is the actual inflation which is the combination of the unexpected and expected inflation. While is the error term that is distributed randomly and normally with zero mean and constant variance. This sign of determine if the specification is in line with the fisherian hypothesis. Thus; a significant and positive sign suggest that stock hedges inflation while a negative sign suggest contrary. 3.3 Model specification Based on the outcome of our theoretical framework which attempts to explain the relationship between real stock returns and inflation, we specify the model for estimation. Stock return represented by all share indexes (ASI) is the dependent variable while the explanatory variables are, one-period lagged inflation represented by consumer indexes (CPI) and one-period lagged stock returns (ASI). This is based on the common belief that stock returns (ASI) takes some time to react to inflationary changes (ΆCPI) and changes in all share indexes (ΆASI). In this study, it is assumed that stock returns depend on a set of variables denoted as: Therefore, our empirical specification is stated as: 1 3.4 Methodology and Estimation Procedures This study makes use of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test to check for the stationarity of the series used in this study, Engle and Johansen cointegration tests is used to confirm if the series have long run relationship while causal long run relationship is determine using an Error correction Model (ECM) which will reveal both the short run and long run relationship between inflation (LOGCPI) and stock returns (LOGASI). 3.4.1 Unit Root Test Assume we have the following AR (1) process: (1) and is a white noise error term. We can manipulate the above expression by subtracting from both sides; Thus: (2) In practice, instead of estimating equation 1, we estimate equation 2 and test the hypothesis that =0. If =0 then that is we have unit root meaning the time series is non-stationary ( for unit root is non-stationary). Thus we can take the first difference of and regress on to see if () is zero or not in order to confirm if the series are stationary or not. Under the null, the estimation for ÃŽÂ ´ is not distributed T-student, so the Dickey Fuller test is required. We use the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) table to correct for possibility of the error term () been auto correlated. The ADF test is specified in the equation below: 3 Where is a white noise Error Term. 3.4.2 Co integration Tests Trended data can be regarded as potentially a major problem for empirical econometrics. Trends may give rise to spurious regression and uninterpretable t- statistics. The stack reality is that in economics most time series are subject to some type of trend while differencing in series until it becomes stationary is one major solution. This has been shown that differencing can lead to loss of long run properties of a series. Based on this the combination of series that are difference once I(1) will give us a model that is stationary I(0). In achieving this aim this study consider two different co integration tests which are; Engle and Granger co integration test and Johansen co integration test. According to Engle and Granger (1987), a time series and are said to be co integrated of order db where d à ¢Ã¢â‚¬ °Ã‚ ¥ b à ¢Ã¢â‚¬ °Ã‚ ¥ 0 written as: CI (db) if: Both series are integrated of order d There exists a linear combination of these variables say; which is integrated of o rder d-b. The vector and is called a co integrating vector. The Engle and Granger co integration test involve two steps; the first step is conducting an OLS regression on the variables in the model specification. The second step is to conduct an ADF test on the residual from the regression if the residual is stationary, then the series are said to be co integrated. The Johansen co integration test on the other hand involves the use of a VAR model and the different maximum likelihood ratios are used to determine the co integrating vectors. These tests are; trace test and maximum eigen value test. Different information criteria such as Akaike Information Criterion, Schwarz information criteria (SIC), Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion, Final Prediction Error and Sequential Modified test Statistic are used in determining the lag length. 3.4.3 Error Correction Model Co integration analysis provides a test for spurious correlation. Finding co integration between apparently correlated I(1) series validate the regression but failure to find co integration is an indication that spurious correlation maybe present thus invalidating the inferences drawn from such correlation. Co integration analysis also helps in formulating the process of dynamic adjustment. However time series data lose their long run properties when they are differenced; allowing only for conclusions on the short run determinations. Therefore there is a need to construct a model that would combine both the short run and long run properties of the variables in the model. As suggested by Engle-Granger representation theorem that if two series are co integrated then they will be efficiently represented by an error correction mechanism. The Error Correction Model is used to capture both the short run and long run properties of the series. The method involves developing a model from it generalized form (over parameterized) to a specific form (parsimonious). In addition if the series are co integrated these dynamic specifications will encompass any other partial adjustment model. The error correction of the Auto regressive distributed lag (ADL) takes the form: where the long run properties are derived from the proportionality between and. The above specification relates the short run change in the dependent variable to the short run change in the explanatory variable.this is called the impact effect () but ties the change to the long run impact through a feed-back mechanism. 3.5 Data The study will utilize monthly time series data from 1997à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å"2006. Data for the variables will be sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2006) and the Nigerian Stock Exchange Annual Reports (2006). The variables of interest in this study are all in logs. These variables are; consumer price indexes (CPI) as inflation series and all share indexes (ASI) as stock returns. CHAPTER FOUR SUMMARY OF EMPIRICAL RESULTS The summary of the statistics used in this empirical study is presented in the appendix. As can be observed from the Table, (see pagexx) the mean value of stock returns is 9.359606 while inflation is 8.442205. It is also observed that both LOGCPI and LOGASI are positively skewed. The kurtosis value is positively low and Jarque-Bera (J-B) statistic test value is relatively high. These suggest that the two series are skewed to the right. Figure1below depicts the graphical illustrations of the data that were used in this empirical analysis. The figure reveals that stock return witnessed significant increase within the period of this study. Figure 1: Graphical illustration of statistics used in the analysis Table 1: Stationarity Test Result Variables Levels First Differences ADF 1 ADF 2 ADF 1 ADF 2 LOGASI 0.712327 -2.440634 -9.385773* -9.586827* LOGCPI 0.244088 -2.680445 -9.152876* -9.113796* SOURCE: Authors Computation NOTE: The Augmented Dicky Fuller test ort the null Hypothesis of the presence of Unit root in LOGASI and LOGCPI. ADF 1 includes a constant; ADF 2 includes a constant and a trend while ADF 3 includes none in the test regression as exogenous. Akaike Information Criterion was used to select lags automatically. * denotes significance at all levels (1%, 5% and 10%). The results from the unit root test are introduced in table 1. the above results, shows that the data are not stationary in level, since the critical values are high when compare to the ADF statistics and probability value is very high indicating that it is not statistically significant at all significance levels in ADF 1 and ADF 2 Furthermore, the variables became integrated of order one at first difference in ADF1 and ADF2 considering the low probability value and critical values that are significant at 1%, 5% and 10% when compare to the ADF test statistics. The result in table 1 show that LOGASI and LOGCPI are both nonstationary series at level are both I (1) series. This implies the above Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests suggest that LOGASI and LOGCPI are of the same order of integration. next, we test for co integration to ascertain if the two series have a long run relationship since the linear combination of I(1) series will give an I(0) series which imply stationarity. The Engle and Granger co integration approach is adopted for this task. This approach involves two steps; the first step involves the estimation of a static OLS regression which captures any possible long-run relationship between LOGASI and LOGCPI. The OLS regression model is specified as follows: (1) Secondly an ADF test is conducted test on the residuals of the OLS regression specified in equation one above. For co integration to exist, the residuals () must be I (0) meaning, the residuals term must be integrated to the order of zero. If the null hypothesis (has unit root) is rejected then and are co integrated. The OLS regression result and ADF test on the residuals are presented in table 2 and table 3 respectively. Table 2: OLS result Dependent Variable: ASI Method: Least Squares Variable Coefficient Std. Error t- Statistic Prob A -0.418581 0.166356 -2.14971 0.0133 0.542636 0.258431 2.099735 0.0380 -0.424224 0.257403 -1.648089 0.1021 1.059213 0.092307 11.47485 0.0010 -0.120618 0.090882 -1.327150 0.1871 = 0.9921 Adjusted = 0.99178 Durbin Watson: 2.04929 Note: model: Table 3: ADF Test on Residual () Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -11.59144 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -2.584877 5% level -1.943587 10% level -1.614912 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESIDUAL) Note: the lag length was determine automatically based on AIC using EViews statistical Package In the above test, constant or trend are not included because the test is conducted on the residuals of the OLS regression conducted in equation one above. The result suggests that the residuals stationary which implies that stock returns and inflation are co- integrated. Therefore we can conclude that there is a long run relationship between stock returns (LOGASI) and inflation (LOGCPI). The Engel co-integration results above reveal that there is long run relationship between inflation and stock returns therefore we can determine the causal long run relationship using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The Hendrys modeling strategy of selecting the most appropriate model by going from general to specific is adopted .we use for this purpose information criterion such as Akaike (AIC) Model Specification: (2) The result of the regression conducted on the over parameterized model is presented in table 4 below. Table 4: Regression result of the Over Parameterized Model Dependent Variable: Variable Estimates à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"t Statistic Constant 0.0006 0.10087 -0.0794 -2.9266* 0.3131 1.1815 0.3203 1.2232 0.1829 0.7046 0.0869 0.9469 0.1266 1.3634 Note: * indicate 1% significant level From the above results, it is observed that only the lag value of the residual is statistically significant. The model arrived at, is regarded as the more parsimonious model that encompasses both the short run and the long run relationship between stock returns and inflation. Table 5 below, is the presentation of the ECM model. Model Specification: (3) Table 5: Error Correction Model Equation:à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"cause Dependent Variable: Variable Estimates à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"t Statistic Constant 0.00627 1.11380 -0.06111 -2.28680* 0.43796 1.69621** 0.13611 1.50363 *indicate 5% significance level and ** 10% significance level The above result suggest that there is long run causal relationship between inflation and stock returns. The result reveal that estimated coeffient of the lagged value of the error correction mechanism () is negative and statistically significant. This is in line with the apriori expectation suggested by theory. The result also implies with a significance level of 10% that a change in one period lagged value of inflation () has a positive and statistically significant effect on changes in stock returns (). This means that inflation value of a previous month, has positive influence on the changes noticed in stock returns in the current month. Although, the one period lagged value of stock returns() but it is statistically insignificant. CHAPTER FIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 5.1Summary of Major Findings Nigerias inflation position post advent of oil reflects the instability in price that was witnessed in internal and external sectors of the economy. The structural changes such as oil revenue fluctuations, deregulation of the economy, real income reduction, changes in nominal wages fiscal deficits are major causes of price instability in Nigeria. In analyzing the trend and pattern of stock returns vis-ÃÆ'  -vis the performance of government stocks and companies stock in Nigeria, This study reveal that between 1963 and 1990 government stock exceed companies stocks. There was a change in this trend from 1991; trading on stocks of industries and companies increased remarkably thereby making companies stocks more attractive and profitable for investors. The increase in market capitalization was noticed in the economy within these periods has no significant effect on gross domestic product and gross fixed capital formation. This situation has negative impact on the return on investme nt in these periods. In summary, the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test shows that inflation (CPI) and stock returns (ASI) are both I(1) series and the Engel and Granger co integration test which is the linear combination of the I(1) series indicates that inflation and stock returns have a long-run steady-state relationship in Nigeria. The Error Correction model indicates that inflation (CPI) has a causal long run relationship with stock returns (ASI). The one period lagged value of inflation () causes the short run changes noticed in the level of stock returns within the period of this study. The empirical result also reveal that there is a positive relationship between inflation and stock returns which invariably means that inflation (CPI) and stock returns (ASI) move in the same direction which is evident in the graphical illustration. These findings explain why stock returns in Nigeria have witnessed fluctuations. It also revealed that overtime, inflation has been noticed as one of the major factor that determines the fluctuation in returns on investment in Nigeria. 5.2 Conclusion The relationship between inflation (CPI) and stock returns (ASI) has been implied in the model of stock return determination and return on investment literature. However, this relationship has remained largely unexplored. Inflation and what happens to the overall return on stocks is an important indicator that must be considered by any investor when investing on stocks in Nigeria. The study Therefore concludes that inflation is a vital macroeconomic variable that influence the flow of investment and determines the direction and changes noticed in return on stocks in Nigeria overtime. Bibliography Research and statictics department Central Bank of Nigeria. (2007). The dynamics of Inflation. Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria ,Report occasional paper,no32. Adrangi, B., Chatrath, A., Antonio, S. (1997). Inflation, Output, and Stock Prices: Evidence from Brazila. The Journal of Applied Business Research Volume 18,No1 , 61-77. Ajayi, S. I., Ojo, O. O. (2006). Money and Banking, second edition, . Ibadan, Nigeria: Daily Graphic Ltd. Anyanwu, J. C. (1997). the structure of Nigeria Economy, first edition,. Onitsha, Nigeria: Joanee Educational Publishers ltd. Bakshi, G., Chen, Z. (1996). Inflation, Asset Prices,and the Term Structure ofInterest Rates in monetary economics. The review of financial studies Vol. 9, No. 1 , 241-275. Balduzzi, P. (2008, December 16). Stock returns,Inflation and the proxy hypothesis;a new look at the data(june1994). Retrieved August 10, 2010, from SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1298811 Berument, H., Jelassi, M. M. ( 2002). The Fisher hyp othesis: a multi-country analysis. Applied Economics, vol 34 , 1645-1655. Bodie, Z. (1976). common stocks as a hedge against inflation. journal of finance,vol 31 , 459-470. Caporale, T., Jung, C. (1997). inflation and real stock prices. applied financial economics vol,7 , 265-266. Crosby, M. (june,2001). stocks returns and inflation. Austrialia economics papers , 156-165. Erbaykal, E., Okuyan, H. A., Kadioglu, O. (June 13-15, 2008, june 13-15). Real Macro Economic Variables and Stock Prices: Test of Proxy Hypothesis in Turkey. Retrieved august 16, 2010, from SSRN: Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1321678 fama, e. f. (1981). Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money. The American Economic Review vol,71 no4 , 545-565. Fama, E. F. (june). Stock returns, real activity,inflation and money;reply. The American economic review , 471-472. Feldstein, M. (1980). Inflation, tax rules and the stock market. Journal of Monetary Economics vol, 6 , 309-331 . Floros, C. (2004). Stock returns and inflation in Greece. applied econometrics and international development vol,4-2 , 55-68. Geske, R., Roll, R. (1983). The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage Between Stock Returns and Inflation. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 38, No. 1 , 1-33. Greene, W. H. (2003.). Econometric Analysis,Fifth edition. Pearson Education, Inc, . Gultekin, B. (1983). Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 38, No. 1 , 49-65. Hasan, s. (2008). stock returns ,inflation and interest rates in the United Kingdom. the european journal of financevol,14 , 687-699. International Monetry Fund working paper. (1996). investment in inflationary economies WP/96/105. Western Hemisphere Department: IMF. Jones, C., Wilson, J. (2006). the impact of inflation measure on the real returns and risk of U.S stocks. the finacial review vol,41 , 77-94. Jung, C., Shambora, W., Choi, K. (2007). the relationship between s tock returns and inflation in four european markets. applied economics letter vol,14 , 555-557. Kiseok, L. (1999). Unexpected inflation,uncertianity and stock returns. Applied finacial economics vol,9 , 315-328. Lee, K .YSS. (2008). causal relationship between stock returns and inflation. applied economic letters vol,15 , 125-129. Lee, S., Tang, D., Wong, M. (2000`). Stock returns during German hyperinflatiob. the quaterly review of economics and finance vol,40 , 375-386. Lee, U. (Monday, June 22 1998). A test of the proxy-effect hypothesis: evidence from the Pacific Basin countries. Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics . Liu, A., Hsueh, P., Clayton, R. (1993). A re-examination of the proxy hypothesis. Journal of finace and research vol,16,no 3 , 261-268. Longstaff, F., Schwartz, E. (n.d.). The Journal of Finance, Vol. 47, No. 4. Luintel, K. B., Paudyal, K. (2008, january). Stock Returns and Inflation: Some New Evidence. Retrieved august 16, 2010, fro m Economics and Finance Working papers, Brunel University, 01-08: https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/894 Madsen, J. B. (2005). The Fisher hypothesis and the inflation and supply shocks interaction between share returns. Journal of International Money and Finance vol,24 , 103-120. Makun, O. E., Atanda, A. A. (2009, september 5). Retrieved july 20, 2010, from Munich Personal RePEc Archive: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17917/ Marshall, D. (1992). Inflation and Asset Returns in a Monetary Economy. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 47, No. 4 , 1315-1342. McCarthy, J., Najand, M., Seifert, B. (1990). Empirical Tests of the Proxy Hypothesis. Financial Review, 25: , 251à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å"263. Modigliani, F., Cohn, R. A. (1984). Inflation and Corporate Financial Management. MIT Sloan School Working Paper 1572 , 1-37. Mohammad, N., Gregory, N. (1998). causal relations among stock returns,inflation,real activityand interest rates;evidence fron Japan. Global finace journal vol,9(1) , 71-80. Nelson, C. (1976). Inflation and rates of returnon common stocks. The journal of finance,vol.31,No2 , 471-483. Omran, M., Pointon, J. (2001). Does the Inflation Rate Affect the Performance of the Stock. Emerging Markets Review,Vol 2 (3), , 263-279. Patra, T., Poshakwale, S. (2006). Economic variables and stock market returns;evidence from the Athens stock exchange. Applied finacial economics vol,16 , 993-1005. Pierre, L. S., Ben, K. (1999). Stock returns and inflation; anew test of competitng hypothesis. Applied finacial economics vol,9 , 567-581. Romer, D. (2006). Advanced Macroeconomics,second edition,. Boston USA: McGraw-Hill pub.Company. Spyros, I. (2001). stock returns and inflation;evidence from emerging markets. applied economics letter vol,8 , 447-450. Uchendu, .. 0. (1-16). INFLATION TARGETING: A MONETARY Policy Management Framework For The Attainment Of Price Stability In Nigeria. CBN Economic Financial Review, VOL. 38 No. 2 , 20 01. Ugur, S., Ramazan, S. (2005). Inflation, Stock Returns, and Real Activity in Turkey. The Empirical Economics Letters vol, 4(3) , 181-192. Zhao, X.-Q. (1999). Stock prices, inflation and output:evidence from China. Applied Economics Letters, Vol, 6 , 509-511.

Conversation Definition and Examples

Conversation is the spoken exchange of ideas, observations, opinions, or feelings between people.   [T]he properties of the best conversation, says William Covino, echoing Thomas De Quincey, are identical to the properties of the best rhetoric (The Art of Wondering, 1988). Examples and Observations Many of us dismiss talk that does not convey important information as worthless . . .. Such admonitions as Skip the small talk, Get to the point, or Why dont you say what you mean? may seem to be reasonable. But they are reasonable only if information is all that counts. This attitude toward talk ignores the fact that people are emotionally involved with each other and that talking is the major way we establish, maintain, monitor and adjust our relationships.†(Deborah Tannen, Thats Not What I Meant!: How Conversational Style Makes or Breaks Your Relationships. Random House, 1992)Transactional and Interactional Functions of Conversation[T]wo different kinds of conversational interaction can be distinguished--those in which the primary focus is on the exchange of information (the transactional function of conversation), and those in which the primary purpose is to establish and maintain social relations (the interactional function of conversation) (Brown and Yule, 1983). In trans actional uses of conversation the primary focus is on the message, whereas interactional uses of conversation focus primarily on the social needs of the participants...Conversation also reflects the rules and procedures that govern face-to-face encounters, as well as the constraints that derive from the use of spoken language. This is seen in the nature of turns, the role of topics, how speakers repair trouble spots, as well as the syntax and register of conversational discourse.(Jack C. Richards, The Language Teaching Matrix. Cambridge University Press, 1990)Fielding on Knowledge Gained Through ConversationA true knowledge of the world is gained only by conversation . . .[T]here is another sort of knowledge, beyond the power of learning to bestow, and this is to be had by conversation. So necessary is this to the understanding the characters of men, that none are more ignorant of them than those learned pedants whose lives have been entirely consumed in colleges, and among books; f or however exquisitely human nature may have been described by writers, the true practical system can be learnt only in the world.(Henry Fielding, The History of Tom Jones, 1749)Conversational Narratives: Pro and Con[N]o style of conversation is more extensively acceptable than the narrative. He who has stored his memory with slight anecdotes, private incidents, and personal peculiarities, seldom fails to find his audience favourable. Almost every man listens with eagerness to contemporary history; for almost every man has some real or imaginary connection with a celebrated character; some desire to advance or oppose a rising name.(Samuel Johnson, Conversation, 1752)Everyone endeavors to make himself as agreeable to society as he can; but it often happens that those who most aim at shining in conversation overshoot their mark. Though a man succeeds, he should not (as is frequently the case) engross the whole talk to himself; for that destroys the very essence of conversation, which is talking together.(William Cowper, On Conversation, 1756)Polite ConversationSpeech, no doubt, is a valuable gift, but at the same time it is a gift that may be abused. What is regarded as polite conversation is, I hold, such an abuse. Alcohol, opium, tea, are all very excellent things in their way; but imagine continuous alcohol, an incessant opium, or to receive, ocean-like, a perennially flowing river of tea! That is my objection to this conversation: its continuousness. You have to keep on.(H.G. Wells, Of Conversation: An Apology, 1901)Contextualization Cues[In conversation], speakers use contextualization cues, including paralinguistic and prosodic features, word choice, and ways of structuring information, to signal the speech activity in which they are engaged--that is, what they think they are doing when they produce a particular utterance. The use of contextualization cues is automatic, learned in the process of learning language in a particular speech community. But where as speakers focus on the meaning they wish to convey and the interactional goals they wish to achieve, their use of contextualization cues becomes the basis for how they are judged. When expectations regarding the use of contextualization cues are relatively similar, utterances are likely to be interpreted more or less as intended. But when such expectations are relatively different, speakers intentions and abilities are likely to be misevaluated.(Deborah Tannen, Conversational Style: Analyzing Talk Among Friends, 2nd ed. Oxford Univ. Press, 2005)Swift on the Degeneracy of ConversationThis degeneracy of conversation, with the pernicious consequences thereof upon our humours and dispositions, hath been owing, among other causes, to the custom arisen, for sometime past, of excluding women from any share in our society, further than in parties at play, or dancing, or in the pursuit of an amour.(Jonathan Swift, Hints Toward an Essay on Conversation, 1713)The Lighter Side of Conversation You brought up the subject; I contributed an interesting fact on that subject. Its called the art of conversation. Kay, your turn.(Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper, The Spoiler Alert Segmentation. The Big Bang Theory, 2013)Dr. Eric Foreman: You know, there are ways of getting to know people without committing felonies.Dr. Gregory House: People interest me; conversations dont.Dr. Eric Foreman: Thats because conversations go both ways.(Omar Epps and Hugh Laurie, Lucky Thirteen. House, M.D., 2008)

A Social Issue Of Gay And Lesbian Marriage - 1975 Words

A Social Issue signifies an objectionable condition that people believe should be modified and â€Å"social† refers to issues based in a specific society. An often times debated topic is Gay/ lesbian Marriage, or commonly stated as Same-Sex marriage. Societies are passionate over this specific topic given the differences that necessarily arise from such a large divide in beliefs. Similar to any other controversial matter, there are a number of sides, meaning that there are supporters and advocates, traditionalists who support the status quo, and neutral parties; some individuals are devotees to their beliefs, making them extremists while others simply care for their cause and voice their opinion without perturbing others. In other†¦show more content†¦Their view on marriage is a traditional, religious, and historically based conception, additionally supported by the fact that it takes a males sperm and a female’s ovaries and womb to procreate. Per contra, propo nents of same-sex marriage include gay activists, majority of homosexuals themselves, and others who show strong public support. They contend that same-sex couples ought to have the same matrimonial values and public acceptance that is assumed with heterosexual couples. The Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans, and Queer (LGBTQ) community- and adherents- is one that feels suppressed by the traditionalist ideas in that they do not get a chance to express their civil liberties as married people and that barring gay marriage is unconstitutional and discriminatory. This substantial dispute and division of our society is due to dissimilar social and historical values and morals that have been with us since the beginning of time. Civilizations throughout history recognize and define sexuality and marriage according to religious, philosophical, cultural, artistic, and literary dispositions. However, going back to the ancient Mediterranean era, pointedly the Greeks and the Romans, homosexuality wa s not a legitimate concept and neither was heterosexuality. Even so, it was common practice for men to enjoy the â€Å"company† of both men and women. Relationships were not determined on the basis of gender but on which partner played what part in the sexual act

The Effects Of Sleep On A Public Health Epidemic - 955 Words

Sleep is one of the most important parts of our day it effects many aspects of daily functioning and is essential in order for a person to perform at their best. Unfortunately far too many ignore the importance of sleep and sacrifice sleep in order to meet the demands of daily life. The U.S center for disease control has deemed insufficient sleep a public health epidemic.( ) recent literature has shown that adolescence are one of the most sleep deprived populations. The reason being that sleep patterns begin to change during adolescence causing sleep loss. Sleep loss can seriously affect that quality of life for an individual. This paper will review the literature on the changes in sleep patterns in adolescence and the negative consequence that result from sleep loss focusing on adverse behaviors in adolescence. While the importance of sleep has been well documented not enough has been done specifically on the adolescent population. 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Falling And Getting Up Health And Social Care Essay Free Essays

string(135) " sufficient item to enable any reader to judge objectively as perchance more tabular arraies would hold been added to do them clearer\." The writers explained that increasing in age ( ageing ) is associated with hazard of falling and inability to acquire up when fell. They besides reported the complications linked with lying on the floor for long clip. In add-on, they stated that inability to acquire up carried hapless forecast with respects to hazard of hurt in subsequent autumn, admittance to infirmary and eventually mortality. We will write a custom essay sample on Falling And Getting Up Health And Social Care Essay or any similar topic only for you Order Now Aims They stated the aims of this survey and this can be found in the first paragraph under the abstract subdivision. These include ; 1. To depict the incidence and extent of lying on the floor for a long clip after being unable to acquire up from a autumn among people aged over 90. 2. To research their usage of call dismay system in such fortunes as stated in ( 1 ) above. Study design Cohort study-the exposure is non clearly stated in the article but the hazards associated with it are ; ageing, terrible cognitive damage, serious hurt, inability to mount stepss, and admittances to the infirmary. The result is fall and inability to acquire up. This is an appropriate survey design as the writers were looking at a rare exposure and a comparatively common result ( autumn and inability to acquire up ) .In add-on, they were looking at more than one result. Target population The mark population is the full staying endurance aged over 90, of a population based survey, the Cambridge City over-75s Cohort ( CC75C ) .However, it is hard to state from this article how representative these are over the whole Cambridge population since the entire figure of aged over 90 of the whole Cambridge community at the start of the survey is non known and it would hold been nice for the writers to province this. The response rate is however good as 84 % ( 110 ) of the participants took portion in the study and follow up. Study population-exposed Aged?90 old ages who were the staying subsisters of CC75C survey participants were used as the open persons in relation to the hazard factors and instance definition was evidently stated in the article but it is non cognize on which standard it is based on. Study population-unexposed The writers did non give any information about the unexposed group but we may presume that internal comparing method of cohort survey was used in which instance merely one cohort is studied. Therefore, aged?90 old ages subsisters of CC75C were besides used as the unexposed persons. Follow up The terminal of follow up was non clearly stated. In the method paragraph, the writers merely said that the participants were followed up for one twelvemonth or until decease if Oklahoman. It would hold been good if we were told the specific get downing day of the month and stoping day of the month in footings of yearss and months of the old ages. We were besides non state how they handled instances of participants that were transferred from either community or sheltered lodging to institutional scenes ( nursing place or infirmary ) as a consequence of demand for better direction. This may take to rising prices in the figure of falls recorded in institutional scenes. Ascertainment of result Falls, inability to acquire up and usage of dismay systems rates recorded were more subjective than nonsubjective in this survey and this is so since there was no dependable system for observing all the results. In add-on, the steps taken did non truly reflect what one would hold wanted them to. The result assessors and the participants excessively were non blinded to the exposure ; therefore we can non state that the results were accurately measured to minimise prejudice. However, falls reported by telephone with follow-up visit or phone call by undertaking nurse can be a small spot dependable. The above statement indicated some of the commissariats made to cover with possible prejudices in the ascertainment of the survey results. Exposure information The information about exposure was assumed to hold come from the participant themselves and other placeholder sources because we were non told if there was any database where the exposure information was got from ; for that ground, it is hard to state if the exposure was accurately measured. Furthermore, there are no clear cut definitions of hazard factors and/or confusing factors that may be linked to the results. Confusing factors The writers did non place any of import confounding factor perchance due to the survey design adopted. Howbeit, the writers missed some confounders like organic structure mass index, ataractic drug usage, intoxicant maltreatment and other carbon monoxide morbid conditions. Presentation of the consequences Descriptive statistics The research workers of this survey did a thorough occupation by explicating in inside informations the proportions of those who fell and that of falls in participants populating in the community, sheltered lodging and those in institutional scenes. It was observed that most people fell at least twice and that falls in the community scenes were more than in the other scenes. It was besides noticed that falls occurred more when the participants were entirely. In the same vena, per centums and proportions of inability to acquire up amongst participants were given in inside informations. It was noticed here that most people needed aid to acquire up after a autumn in all the scenes. Be that as it may, of all the reported falls ; it was found out that few people were seen lying on the floor for an hr or more. Sing those who fell instead than falls, it was inferred from the description by the writers that the proportion of those who fell was higher than those that did non. Furthermore, from the information provided by the writers ; it can be deduced that most participants had one signifier of call dismay systems but were mostly non used by them. The findings nevertheless as presented by the writers were non really clear, they are subjective and non in sufficient item to enable any reader to judge objectively as perchance more tabular arraies would hold been added to do them clearer. You read "Falling And Getting Up Health And Social Care Essay" in category "Essay examples" Furthermore, some findings are internally inconsistent ; illustration of this can be seen in the first statement made under the inability to acquire up subdivision which says everyone who fell in an institutional scene, 66 % ( 41/62 ) who fell in sheltered lodging, and 43 % ( 52/120 ) who fell in community scenes needed aid to acquire up after a autumn. The entire figure of participants in the sheltered lodging is 19 which are far less than 66 % of 62 quoted above. Similarly, the entire figure of participants in the community is 62 which are more than 43 % of 120, so the Numberss did non add up here. Statistical analyses-multivariate analysis scheme The writers adjusted for the undermentioned variables ( addition in age, sex, topographic point of abode, maximal walking distance, usage of walking assistance, cognitive damage, recalled falls in past twelvemonth, hurt sustained in falling, hospital admittances ) with regard to unable to acquire up without aid after?1 autumn on one manus and lying on floor for at least 1 hr after?1 autumn on the other manus by utilizing arrested development theoretical account in a individual block format to command for possible confounders between them. However, they failed to demo us the adjusted odds ratios with their 95 % assurance intervals which makes it to belie the rubric of the tabular array ( factors associated with inability to acquire up and lying on the floor for a long clip after autumn, with unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios ( 95 % assurance interval ) ) . Furthermore, it is non really clear whether the writers used an a priori hypothesis or non since merely the adjusted odds ratios were calculated in the survey. Consequences from the tabular array It was noted that unable to acquire up without aid after ?1 autumn has strong association with can non mount stepss or A ; lt ; 1 flight/day OR 16.6 ( 95 % CI 3.1 to 87.7 ) and autumn related infirmary admittance OR 21.1 ( 95 % CI 1.9 to 230.5 ) except for the broad assurance interval. Furthermore, lying on floor for at least 1 hr after ?1 autumn has strong association with terrible cognitive damage OR 8.1 ( 95 % CI 2.1 to 31.0 ) , serious hurt OR 4.2 ( 95 % CI 1.2 to 14.8 ) , serious OR 7.4 ( 1.3 to 41.1 ) and autumn related infirmary admittance OR 4.0 ( 95 % CI 1.3 to 12.3 ) . This implies that though the odds ratios are statistically important, the hazards estimations are weak and non precise. Furthermore, the absence of p-value in the analysis made this consequence non to be really dependable although the reading was done right from the available statistics. Discussion The writers summarized their survey reasonably good by stating us which factors have associations with the results of involvement but p-values were non stated to confirm the significance of the associations. There is handiness of call dismay systems for most of the participants but were frequently non used by them when they should hold. They failed to compare the consequences of the survey with those from old surveies except that they mentioned what is already known on the subject and what this survey adds to what is already known. Overall, the survey is relevant and addressed most of the inquiries raised by the methods and consequences. The value of this paper to a local authorization responsible for planning services for the aged in United Kingdom Though the consequences of this survey may non be really dependable due to absence of p-value to buttress the significance of the associations between the explanatory variables and the result variables, it has got some information that may be of practical usage to a United Kingdom ( UK ) local authorization responsible for be aftering services to the aged. First, happening of association between cognitive damage and lying on the floor for a long clip suggests the demand for the development of automatic autumn sensors that do non necessitate the wearer triping them and this could cut down the extent of clip spent on the floor and its effects. Besides, reported restrictions with mobility were strongly associated with being unable to acquire up after falling and this suggests that those at hazard can be readily identified for preventive enterprise like preparation in how to acquire up which UK local authorization can direct policy toward. Furthermore, findings of widely handiness of alarm systems but with rare use by the participants due to some moral issues put frontward the demand for attitudinal alteration instruction of them which could be designed by the planning authorization. Interventions to forestall autumn in the aged in UK. Background Falls amongst elderly remain a major public wellness job in the UK. They are a chief cause of unfitness and are the taking cause of decease ensuing from hurt in the aged people in UK. ( 1 ) In add-on, over 400,000 aged people attend accident and exigency unit following accidents in England and about 14,000 people die yearly as a effect of osteoporotic hip break. ( 2 ) There is hence blazing grounds that falls have impact on wellness, quality of life and wellness attention costs. Furthermore, aged people have higher hazard of inadvertent hurts that result in hospitalization or mortality than any other age group. ( 3 ) The chief issue of concern is non merely the high incidence of falls in aged people since kids and jocks have high incidence of falls but alternatively, the combination of high incidence and a high susceptibleness to hurt. ( 4 ) Furthermore, there were about 647,721 accident and exigency attendings and 204,424 admittances to hospital for autumn related hurts in UK population of aged ?60 old ages in 1999. ( 1 ) The cost deduction of these falls to National Health Service and Personal Service Society was A ; lb ; 908.9 million and 63 % of these costs were spent on falls in aged?75 old ages. ( 1 ) This reappraisal will therefore discuss grounds to two effectual intercessions that have been proved to cut down the hazard of falling and autumn in aged people. The outstanding grounds for the effectivity of intercessions to forestall falls in the aged should come Forth from big and good conducted randomised controlled tests, or from the meta-analysis of little trials. ( 5 ) Systematic reappraisals of some surveies that have been carried out in the yesteryear revealed that some intercessions are effectual while others are non. The extent and magnitude of their effectivity besides vary from one another. Some have besides been found to be effectual merely if used in combination with other types. In add-on, the continuance of effectivity of some are short while some have complications attributed to them. In most of the surveies reviewed, multifactorial hazard appraisal and direction was found to be effectual. Multifactorial hazard appraisal and direction can be described as a focussed station autumn appraisal programme or systematic hazard factor testing amongst persons at hazard of autumn tied to recommendations of intercessions and follow up for hazards undetected. ( 6 ) These appraisal and direction are performed by wellness attention professionals with equal accomplishments and experience on aged people who present for medical attending because of autumn, or study recurrent falls late or show abnormalcies of pace and balance. ( 6 ) The appraisals include the followerss ; History taking for autumn designation Gait, balance, mobility and musculus failing appraisal Osteoporosis hazard appraisal Appraisal of cognitive damage and neurological scrutiny Home jeopardies appraisal Fear associating to falling and perceived functional ability appraisal Examination of cardiovascular system and medicine reappraisal Any of the above one time detected is managed medically or surgically as deemed tantrum to forestall falls. Another intercession that was found to be effectual in most of the surveies reviewed is exercise programmes. Exercise is any bodily activity that enhances or maintains physical fittingness and overall wellness. ( 7 ) The constituents of exercising programme that have been proved to be effectual for aged people include balance exercising, flexibleness, endurance and strength exercising ( musculus beef uping ) . ( 8 ) The exercising should nevertheless be separately prescribed and monitored by an adequately trained professional. ( 5 ) It has been said that programmes which contain two or more of these constituents cut down falls and figure of people falling enormously. ( 8 ) Evidences to back up their effectivity from the surveies every bit good as the consequences Searchs were undertaken in the Cochrane library for secondary grounds on intercession for bar of autumn in aged. Most recent reappraisals on the subject gettable within the clip frame of this study were selected for assessment. One recent Cochrane reappraisal specifically addressed effects of intercessions to cut down the incidence of falls in older people populating in the community. ( 9 ) This reappraisal included 111 tests carried out in 15 states. Based on these surveies the followers were reported: Multifactorial hazard appraisal and direction Decrease in rate of falls ( rate ratio=RaR 0.75, 95 % ( assurance interval=CI 0.65 to 0.86 ) but non in hazard of autumn decrease ( comparative risk=RR ) . ( 9 ) RR 0.82, 95 % CI 0.72 to 0.94 and monthly RaR 0.63, 95 % CI 0.49 to 0.83. ( 10 ) RR 0.78, 95 % CI 0.64 to 0.96. ( 11 ) Adjusted comparative hazard ( ARR ) 0.82, 95 % CI 0.72 to 0.94. ( 12 ) RR 0.84, 95 % CI 0.73 to 0.97 for hazard of falling and pooled incident ratio of 0.65, 95 % CI 0.49 to 0.85. ( 13 ) Exercise programmes Multiple-component group exercising caused decrease in rate of falls and hazard of falling ( RaR 0.75 95 % CI 0.71 to 0.86 ; RR 0.83, 95 % CI 0.72 to 0.97 ) , Tai qi is a signifier of exercising practised by the Chinese ( RaR 0.63, 95 % CI 0.52 to 0.78 ; RR 0.65, 95 % CI 0.51 to 0.82 ) , and separately prescribed multiple-component place base exercising ( RaR 0.66, 95 % CI 0.53 to 0.82 ; RR 0.77, 95 % CI 0.61 to 0.97 ) . ( 9 ) RR 0.86,95 % CI 0.75 to 0.99 ; but non for rate with RaR 0.86,95 % CI 0.73 to 1.01. ( 10 ) RR 0.82,95 % CI 0.70 to 0.97. ( 14 ) ARR 0.86, 95 % CI 0.75 to 0.99. ( 12 ) All the consequences quoted above caused decrease in either hazard of falling ( RR A ; lt ; 1 ) or rate of falling ( RaR A ; lt ; 1 ) . In add-on, the assurance intervals are non broad doing the consequences to be dependable. However, exercise if non monitored by a professional or adequately prescribed can be harmful. The intercessions discussed above are likely traveling to be helpful in the oldest aged ( those 90 old ages and above ) due to the fact that all the surveies reviewed were fundamentally done on elderly 65 and over and none placed upper bound to the age scope. In add-on, multifactorial hazard appraisal and direction and exercising programmes reduced the hazards and rate of falling as evidenced by decrease in the RaRs and RRs of the surveies reviewed and should hence be included in falls bar programmes. The lone state of affairs where they may non work is if there is associated dementedness. Other intercessions like taking vitamin D addendums, environmental alterations in places, instruction programmes, and medicines optimizations have non yet been shown to be effectual. How to cite Falling And Getting Up Health And Social Care Essay, Essay examples

Great Wall Of China Report Essay Example For Students

Great Wall Of China Report Essay The Great Wall of ChinaThe Great Wall of China is truly one of the greatest architectural achievements in recorded history. The longest structure ever built, it is about 6,700 kilometers (4,163 miles) long and made entirely by hand. This wall is said to be visible from the moon. It crosses Northern China, from the East coast to Central China (Karls, 1). This massive wall is not only one of the ancient wonders of the world, but it also has been the inspiration of many writers and artists. With a history of more than 2,000 years, some of the sections of the Great Wall are now in ruins or even entirely disappeared. However, it is still one of the most appealing attractions all around the world, because of its architectural greatness and historical significance. The Great Walls construction began in 221 BC under the emperor Meng Tien, of the Chin Dynasty (Twitchett, 2). Continual invasions and wars from the barbarians to the North drove the emperor to order its construction to protect the newly unified China. It started at Lintao and extended to Liaotung, reaching a distance of more than 10,000 Li. After crossing the Yellow River, it wound northward, touching the Yang Mountains (Twitchett, 2). Although the wall is considered to be well under 10,000 Li (one Li is approximately a third of a mile) it was truly an amazing accomplishment (Twitchett, 2). Meng Tien employed some 300,000 men in the creation of the original section of the wall. The building of such a massive wall would definitely be a huge task. A wall that stretches through the wilderness is not easily accessed by supply lines, unlike a highway that creates its own supply line (Delahoye, 3). There was also a massive loss of lives during the construction of the wall, due to widesprea d disease and injury (Delahoye, 3). In fact it is an Ancient Chinese myth, that each stone in the wall stands for a life lost in the walls construction (Delahoye, 3). It is recorded that Meng Tiens section of the wall took only ten years to build, but it is believed that it actually took a substantially greater amount of time (Delahoye, 3). After Meng Tiens original construction the wall was far from completed. Other walls were added to and encompassed within The Great Wall. The last major work on the wall was completed during the Ming Dynasty around 1500 (Delahoye, 3). The Great Wall extends around 1,500 miles in an east-west direction. It travels through four provinces (Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu) beginning in northern Hebei and ending in the northwest Gansu province (Delahoye, 3). The Great Wall is built of many different materials, from granite blocks to tamped earth (Ledoux, 4). These materials ranging from 15 to 50 feet high with a base width between 15 and 30 feet, the wall had guard towers spread along the entire length of the wall (Ledoux, 4). The Great Wall of China was built by stacking mud or clay bricks one by one on top of each other. The brick was first produced in a sun-dried form at least 6,000 years ago, and is the prototype of a wide range of clay building products used today (Ledoux, 4). It is the small building unit in the form of a rectangular block, formed from clay, shale, or other mixtures and burned in a oven, to produce strength, hardness, and heat resistance (Ledoux, 4). The original concept of ancient brick-makers was that the unit should not be bigger than what one man could easily handle (Ledoux, 4). .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 , .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 .postImageUrl , .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 , .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6:hover , .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6:visited , .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6:active { border:0!important; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6:active , .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6 .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .u4209ef690cbabc63e1589e2ec5e8f4c6:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Physical fitness EssayTo understand the Great Wall it is necessary to know the many components of the wall, and their purposes. The Great Wall was renovated from time to time after the Qin Dynasty. A major renovation started with the founding of the Ming Dynasty in 1368, and took 200 years to complete (Karls, 1). The wall seen today is almost exactly the result of this effort. With a total length of over 6,000 kilometers, it extends to the Jiayu Pass in Gansu Province, and in the west to the mouth of the Yalu River in the Liaoning Province in the east (Karls, 1). What

Relationship Between Drug Abuse and Academic Achievement free essay sample

Gazarelli, Hoxter amp; Lester (1987) in studying the drug usage patterns of Jamaican teens, discovered that while drug usage was not dependent on sex, it bore positive correlations with other anti-social behaviours and emotional disturbance. In 1989, 78 percent of teen males and 40 percent of teen females were using one of four drugs (alcohol, cocaine, marijuana and tobacco) (Soyibo amp; Lee, 1995). Between 1994 and 1995, it is indicated that 60 percent of teens had tried one or more drugs including marijuana while 1. 3 percent had used cocaine (Soyibo amp; Lee, 1995). These alarming levels of reported drug continued to rise as in 2006 , 1 in every 3 students in secondary schools admitted to using ganja while 1 in every 10 students admitted to currently using drugs (Cops Step Up Anti-drug Message In Schools ,Jamaica Gleaner, 2010). With the levels of drug abuse currently reaching alarming proportions, finding a plausible explanation for such behaviors and determining its impact on student achievement has become imperative. We will write a custom essay sample on Relationship Between Drug Abuse and Academic Achievement or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page The negative relationship between drug abuse and academic performance is instinctively appealing and to some extent this kind of relationship has been proven. King, Meehan et. al (2006) have established that drug abuse could result from many variables, with poor academic performance being a key variable in explaining students initial and continued abuse of drugs. While poor school achievement can be viewed as a causative agent for drug abuse, it has also been established that drug abuse can affect student attainment whether by impairing cognitive development and functioning or the disengagement of teens with schooling activities which result in truancy and igh dropout levels (Block, Farnham, et. al (1990);King, Meehan et. al ,2006) Jamaican Students Performance in CXC Jamaican students have experienced some levels of underachievement to some extent in some core academic areas. Data presented from the CXC Database (1991-2000) indicate that only 31. 27 percent of students who sat the Mathematics examination in 1991 were able to do so successfully as compared to 26. 84 percent who passed English A. A similar trend of low percentage passes is noted in 2005 where only 35 percent of students sitting Mathematics from Jamaica were able to do so successfully ( Policy Analysis Research and MIS Unit, Ministry of Education, 2002-2005). While it is accepted that drug abuse among Jamaican teens is steadily on the rise and that drug abuse can negatively affect student academic achievement, little is known about the extent to which a true relationship exists between the low levels of academic attainment experienced by Jamaican Students in English A and Mathematics and the increasing levels of drug abuse among Jamaican teens. Research Problem In light of the prevalence of drug use among teens (Jamaican) the purpose of this research is to quantify the factors contributing to drug abuse among Jamaican students and appraise the relationship between drug abuse and the academic performance in CXC-CSEC Mathematics and English A of upper school (grade 10-11) students. Justification for Research This study will be useful in identifying whether or not the poor grades experienced by many students in Math and English at CXC level could be explained by an increase in drug usage and abuse among teens of that age. The study will be useful in identifying whether or not the trend of low academic achievement experienced by many students in Math and English at CXC-CSEC level could also be explained by an increase in drug usage and abuse among teens in grades 10 and 11. The information obtained from this study will also inform policy and decision making by the Ministry of Education and other stakeholders in relation to plans and strategies that can be put in place to stem drug usage an abuse. Research Questions and Hypotheses This research intend to answer the following questions: 1) What are the most common drugs used by students? 2)Which gender engages more in the use of drugs in school? 3) What is the relationship between student academic performance and drug use? The researchers hypothesize that: a) There is no relationship between student performance and deviant behaviour and b) No Gender is more predisposed to drug use/abuse than another. Definitions Academic performance for the purpose of th is research is defined as the level student achievement or attainment of the objectives and outcomes outlined by the CXC Syllabi for Mathematics amp; English A .